RecessionRisk.com is a website based on the methodology from Furno and Giannone’s (2024) paper “Nowcasting Recession Risk.” It estimates the probability that the United States and the euro area are currently in recession in the current month. Strictly speaking, it is not a conventional marketing or SEO tool, but rather a macroeconomic and financial risk monitoring dashboard. Its value lies in helping market, research, and decision-making teams assess the economic-cycle backdrop, thereby indirectly supporting judgments around budgets, campaign pacing, or industry demand.
The site’s core function is to provide a recession-risk nowcast, with views for Latest, Real-Time, different time ranges, and the United States/euro area. The model combines one macroeconomic indicator and one financial stress indicator: for the United States, it uses ISM PMI Manufacturing and CISS; for the euro area, it uses ESI and CISS. Official recession periods come from NBER and CEPR. In terms of sample coverage, the U.S. series starts in January 1980, while the euro-area series starts in January 1985. The model is a Bayesian logit model and outputs recession probabilities along with 5%/95% quantile intervals. The page also notes that the initial estimates are highly correlated with the final estimates.
The main content does not show any paid plans or account system. The site states that users can download the recession-probability time series through the dashboard’s Data button, including the median and confidence intervals. Researchers can also obtain a complete replication package on GitHub. However, not all of the underlying input data is free: CISS comes from ECB, ESI from European Commission, while ISM PMI Manufacturing requires a subscription, which affects full replication.
Its strengths are transparent methodology, well-documented data sources, and relatively timely updates: estimates can be produced on the first business day after the reference month ends. By combining financial stress with economic sentiment, it may also detect turning points faster than a single unemployment-based rule. Its limitations are that coverage is restricted to the United States and the euro area, and it does not support common marketing/SEO functions such as keyword, ranking, backlink, or traffic analysis. The site also does not disclose an API, commercial support, SLA, or payment methods, and some status fields are blank.
It is suitable for macro researchers, asset-allocation teams, financial media, policy analysts, and strategy teams that want to factor the economic cycle into marketing-budget decisions. For users in China, the main content does not provide information on access, network availability, or payments, so access from China can only be classified as unknown. If you need a marketing/SEO execution tool, consider a dedicated SEO platform; if you are focused on alternative macro indicators, you may also look at SPF, Sahm Rule, or expanded models from Bloomberg and similar providers.
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recessionrisk.com is an Unknown Marketing & SEO provider. TG4G tracks its product information, an overall rating of 6.0/10, and a China-accessibility score of China direct-connect friendly. Click "Visit Official Site" to reach recessionrisk.com directly.